How is Nokia Doing – Update

On April 16th I wrote

“I’d like to see Nokia unveil a clearer plan – perhaps like my prescription or an entirely different one. Waiting until 2012 before we see Windows phones doesn’t seem like a good idea – and in the interim the only headlines will relate to lay-offs, budget cuts, sales of units and other negatives, all of which will drive away customers and so put the stock in negative territory. Mr Elop has a big job ahead of him. Let’s hope he’s not like the CEO of Microfocus who departed after less than a year on the job this week, with the stock pricehaving fallen 41%. Instead he’ll be hoping he’s more like Bart Brecht who say the shares of Reckitt Benckheiser lose $2bn in value upon the announcement of his departure.”

Yesterday the stock fell to a low of $6.79 before recovering, a little, to $7.02 (it was at $8.66 when I wrote the paragraph above). The headlines continue to be negative and the company isn’t putting out a good story – instead they know it’s going to get worse, withdrawing guidance for the rest of 2011 and only citing “increased confidence that the Windows Phone will ship in Q4 2011”.

Next week is WWDC with iOS5 at the very least (as well as iCloud) if not a new (or upgraded) iPhone; doubtless the Android team will put the boot into Nokia not long after that. It will, certainly get worse before it gets better. And maybe it won’t get better. That would be a shame.

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