There used to be a site called f*dcompany.com. Nokia is starting to look like a company that might have qualified for it’s death watch clock. No, that’s too extreme. But as I said in October 2009, they’re in trouble – and for reasons that were all visible (if not actionable by investors) as long ago as 2003.
In October 2009 when I wrote that post, the stock was at around $14. Right now they’re at $8.81.
If you look over a longer timeframe then Nokia have been largely flat since mid-2002 (unless you bought in late 2008 – but pretty much anything you bought then doesn’t look so great now).
(both graphs sourced from e*trade)
My closing paragraph was
Two years from now, is it possible that Nokia’s market share will be less than 20% of the global total with a single digit percentage share in smartphones? It sounds far fetched, but it’s possible. Were that to happen, it strikes me that acquirers would move in – and Nokia’s response would be to close down failing businesses and make significant cost reductions to fend them off. Would the Finnish government allow a foreign company to acquire all or large parts of Nokia? We will, perhaps, see. Place your bets – are you long or short Nokia?
Market share is heading down, cost cuts will have to be made and margin compression is inevitable. I think there’s more downside from here.